The BC COVID-19 Modelling Group works on rapid response modelling of the COVID-19 pandemic, with a special focus on British Columbia and Canada.

The interdisciplinary group, working independently from Government, includes experts in epidemiology, mathematics, and data analysis from UBC, SFU, UVic, and the private sector, with support from the Pacific Institute for the Mathematical Sciences.

Recent Posts

COVID Model Projections - January 25, 2023

The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their twenty-seventh report on the status of COVID-19 in British Columbia (January 25th, 2023). SARS-CoV-2 lineages BQ.1 and XBB and their descendants, which carry several mutations reducing antibody recognition, are the fastest spreading variants in Canada. BQ.1* has risen to a current frequency of ~85% across the country. Case numbers are undergoing only modest fluctuations, reflecting the rise and fall of population-level immunity through infections, vaccinations, and waning. Models project future declines in case numbers over the short term, with the rising tide of XBB.1.5 likely having only a modest impact.

Sarah "Sally" Otto, Eric Cytrynbaum, Dean Karlen, Jens von Bergmann, Caroline Colijn, Rob James, Ailene MacPherson, James Colliander, Daniel J. McDonald, Dan Coombs, Elisha Are, Bryn Wiley

2023-01-25 1 min read reports

COVID Model Projections - January 25, 2023

COVID Model Projections - November 23, 2022

The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their twenty-sixth report on the status of COVID-19 in British Columbia (November 23rd, 2022). Omicron continues to be dominated by BA.5* variants, particularly descendants like BQ.1* that carry many mutations that reduce antibody recognition. BQ.1* has risen to an estimated current frequency of 50% in BC and in Canada. Nevertheless, case numbers are rising and falling in a manner that depends less on these variants and more on population-level immunity and the waning of this immunity. This is good news, suggesting that population-level immunity is largely protective against BQ.1* as well.

Sarah "Sally" Otto, Eric Cytrynbaum, Dean Karlen, Jens von Bergmann, Caroline Colijn, Rob James, Rob DuMont, Ailene MacPherson, James Colliander, Daniel J. McDonald, Dan Coombs, Elisha Are, Bryn Wiley

2022-11-23 1 min read reports

COVID Model Projections - November 23, 2022

COVID Model Projections - October 5, 2022

The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their twenty-fifth report on the status of COVID-19 in British Columbia (October 5th, 2022). The BA.5-driven Omicron wave persists with high rates of infection. The prolonged nature of the BA.5 wave is consistent with waning of immunity from infections and vaccinations early in the year. Future projections predict a rise in cases, even without new variants that are better able to evade immunity. Underreporting of cases is extremely high, with ~100-fold more infections currently than reported cases.

Sarah "Sally" Otto, Eric Cytrynbaum, Dean Karlen, Jens von Bergmann, Caroline Colijn, Rob James, Rob DuMont, Ailene MacPherson, James Colliander, Daniel J. McDonald, Dan Coombs, Elisha Are, Bryn Wiley

2022-10-05 1 min read reports

COVID Model Projections - October 5, 2022

COVID Model Projections - August 17, 2022

The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their twenty-fourth report on the status of COVID-19 in British Columbia (August 17th, 2022). This report shows that the Omicron BA.5 wave has peaked across much of Canada. Nevertheless, risks of infection remain high, with infections likely 100-fold more common than reported cases at present.

Sarah "Sally" Otto, Eric Cytrynbaum, Dean Karlen, Jens von Bergmann, Caroline Colijn, Rob James, Rob DuMont, Ailene MacPherson, James Colliander, Daniel J. McDonald, Dan Coombs, Elisha Are, Bryn Wiley

2022-08-17 1 min read reports

COVID Model Projections - August 17, 2022

COVID Model Projections - July 13, 2022

The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their twenty-third report on the status of COVID-19 in British Columbia (July 13th, 2022). This report focuses on the rising Omicron BA.5 wave, which is now the most frequent variant in BC and Canada.